Has Adoption of Lockdown Contributed to Reducing the Mortality Rate?
An exploratory analysis of the data on this issue
Lockdown was initially adopted to flatten the curve. However, this measure has been extended until now and inevitably has a relevant impact on society in health, economic, and social aspects.
Here we will make an exploratory analysis of the data to investigate the behavior of mortality by COVID-19, considering the countries that adopted and those that did not adopt lockdown.
First, we will assess the evolution of the number of accumulated deaths for million people (mortality rate). This epidemiological indicator allows countries with different numbers of inhabitants to be comparable with each other.
To assess the behavior of mortality, we analyzed the mortality rate trend in the period from 03/20/2020 to 02/11/2021.
The calculus of the trend estimate was processed using the slope of the regression model, and the confidence interval was calculated using the bootstrap method, and we used KNIME with R integration to process data and models.
The Linear Regression Model is a statistical technique used to analyze the linear relationship between two or more variables.
The bootstrap method uses sampling processes following the distribution of probability to estimate a given parameter, in this case, to estimate a sample of coefficients to obtain the confidence interval.
In this context, the confidence interval refers to the probability that the trend’s real value is between the lower and upper limit of this interval, with 99% confidence.
KNIME Workflow with R integration
The trend coefficients measure the slope of the line. The higher this coefficient, the steeper the line is, indicating in our analysis a greater tendency to increase the mortality rate.
For example, the trend estimates in France (adopted lockdown) and Sweden (not adopted lockdown) are respectively.
The estimated increase in the number of deaths per million inhabitants in France was 3.27 per day, similar to the rate in Sweden, which was 3.21 per day.
After obtaining the country’s trend, we calculated this coefficient’s confidence interval considering 99% confidence.
Lockdown: Who adopted vs. who didn’t
Japan and South Korea were countries that did not adopt lockdown and presented the lowest mortality growth trends compared with all the countries analyzed, respectively, 0.08 (CI 99%: 0.077–0.09) and 0.55 (CI 99%: 0.50–0.06).
Among the countries that adopted lockdown measures, Norway and Finland had the lowest trends, respectively, 0.292 (CI 99%: 0.283–0.300) and 0.354 (CI 99%: 0.341–0.365).
Sweden is one of the three countries analyzed that did not adopt lockdown and presented a trend in the mortality rate of 3.21 (CI 99%: 3.09–3.33), a value very close to Brazil and France that adopted lockdown. This Nordic country also showed a lower mortality trend than Italy (3,973), Spain (3,957), and England (3,904), countries that adopted lockdown.
As a result, this analysis found evidence that countries that did not adopt lockdown did not show an increase in the mortality rate trend due to COVID-19 compared to countries that adopted such a measure.
Final considerations
In the context of COVID-19, Lockdown refers to implementing strict restrictions within a community, such as making access to public spaces impossible, restricting travel, social interactions, and the free operation of economic activities considered non-essential.
Lockdown was not adopted homogeneously across countries, as the intensity and timing of restrictive measures varied widely. This heterogeneity added to the socio-cultural, environmental, and economic characteristics may have influenced mortality; therefore, these characteristics were not considered in these analyzes.
In this analysis were not controlled possible factors that could influence the mortality rate.
That is why more rigorous investigations must be carried out by the scientific community, as the lockdown has a substantial impact on both health and the economy.
This impact has evidenced in several scientific pieces of research, such as the articles:
- Suicide Mortality and Coronavirus Disease — published in JAMA Psychiatry
- Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model — published in the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Based on these researches, I conclude with this question:
- Should the lockdown adoption be implemented convincingly by public administrators on a compulsory basis for an entire population?
References
- First Step with KNIME (in Portuguese and in English)
- How to Build a Data Analysis Process for Beginners (in Portuguese and English)
- Base de dados: Our World in Data, Johns Hopkins University
- A. C. Davison,D. V. Hinkley — Bootstrap Methods And Their Application
- Regerm A., Stanley I, Joiner E. Suicide Mortality and Coronavirus Disease 2019 — A Perfect Storm.. JAMA Psychiatry. 2020;77(11):1093–109
- Chudik A., Mohaddes K, Hashem M., Raissi M., A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model. National Bureau Of Economic Research. Working Paper 27855
By Marcus Estanislao, CEO at HUPDATA
